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Which model is most accurate in Palencia?

In Palencia, the Atlas Forecast, ICON and the model median do about equally well on tomorrow's temperature (the first has an average error of 1.3 °C): the difference between them could be chance.

Last 30 days (11 October to 9 November) · 4 stations from AEMET

Temperature

For today (0–24 h)

In Palencia, the Atlas Forecast, ICON and the model median do about equally well on today's temperature (the first has an average error of 1.2 °C): the difference between them could be chance.

  1. 1Atlas Forecast (estimated)1.2 °C
  2. 2ICON1.2 °C
  3. 3Model median1.3 °C
  4. 4ARPEGE (Météo-France)1.4 °C
  5. 5UKMO (Met Office)1.4 °C
  6. 6ECMWF IFS1.5 °C
  7. 7ECMWF AIFS (AI)1.5 °C
  8. 8Google AI (WeatherNext 2) (estimated)1.8 °C
  9. 9GFS1.9 °C

4 stations · 30 days

For tomorrow (24–48 h)

In Palencia, the Atlas Forecast, ICON and the model median do about equally well on tomorrow's temperature (the first has an average error of 1.3 °C): the difference between them could be chance.

  1. 1Atlas Forecast (estimated)1.3 °C
  2. 2ICON1.4 °C
  3. 3Model median1.4 °C
  4. 4ARPEGE (Météo-France)1.5 °C
  5. 5UKMO (Met Office)1.6 °C
  6. 6ECMWF IFS1.6 °C
  7. 7Google AI (WeatherNext 2) (estimated)1.7 °C
  8. 8ECMWF AIFS (AI)1.8 °C
  9. 9GFS1.9 °C

4 stations · 30 days

Average error in the temperature for each hour, at the stations in the area. The shorter the bar, the better. Highlighted: the leaders, where the difference between them cannot be put down to chance.

Wind

For today (0–24 h)

In Palencia, ICON and the Atlas Forecast do about equally well on today's wind (the first has an average error of 3.3 km/h): the difference between them could be chance.

  1. 1ICON3.3 km/h
  2. 2Atlas Forecast (estimated)3.3 km/h
  3. 3Model median3.9 km/h
  4. 4UKMO (Met Office)4.1 km/h
  5. 5ECMWF AIFS (AI)4.2 km/h
  6. 6ECMWF IFS4.6 km/h
  7. 7GFS5.5 km/h

4 stations · 30 days

For tomorrow (24–48 h)

In Palencia, ICON and the Atlas Forecast do about equally well on tomorrow's wind (the first has an average error of 3.4 km/h): the difference between them could be chance.

  1. 1ICON3.4 km/h
  2. 2Atlas Forecast (estimated)3.4 km/h
  3. 3Model median4.0 km/h
  4. 4ECMWF AIFS (AI)4.1 km/h
  5. 5UKMO (Met Office)4.2 km/h
  6. 6ECMWF IFS4.5 km/h
  7. 7GFS5.5 km/h

4 stations · 30 days

Rain

For today (0–24 h)

In Palencia, no model stands out this month on today's rain: the differences could be chance. The one with the smallest error, ECMWF AIFS, is off by 0.2 l/m² per day on average.

  1. 1ECMWF AIFS (AI)0.2 l/m² per day
  2. 2ECMWF IFS0.2 l/m² per day
  3. 3Model median0.3 l/m² per day
  4. 4ICON0.3 l/m² per day
  5. 5UKMO (Met Office)0.3 l/m² per day
  6. 6GFS0.4 l/m² per day
  7. 7ARPEGE (Météo-France)0.5 l/m² per day

3 stations · 30 days

For tomorrow (24–48 h)

In Palencia, no model stands out this month on tomorrow's rain: the differences could be chance. The one with the smallest error, the model median, is off by 0.2 l/m² per day on average.

  1. 1Model median0.2 l/m² per day
  2. 2ECMWF AIFS (AI)0.2 l/m² per day
  3. 3UKMO (Met Office)0.2 l/m² per day
  4. 4ECMWF IFS0.3 l/m² per day
  5. 5ICON0.3 l/m² per day
  6. 6ARPEGE (Météo-France)0.4 l/m² per day
  7. 7GFS0.7 l/m² per day

3 stations · 30 days

Error in the total rain for each day, in litres per square metre.

The Atlas Forecast is active here: its error is an estimate based on the days when it could be verified, compared with the model median over the same hours.

Google's AI (WeatherNext 2) is now in the league. As we only compare it every 6 hours (that is how often it runs) and measure it at one station per province, its error is an estimate: the model median's error plus how much more or less Google's AI misses than the median at those hours.

See Palencia in the dashboard

Weather in Palencia

All towns in Palencia · The league in the other provinces

How it is calculated

We compare what each model had forecast for the same day (0–24 h) and for the next day (24–48 h) with what the Meteocat (in Catalonia) and AEMET weather stations measured over the last 30 days. They all compete over the same hours. Being first is not enough to win: the difference has to pass a day-by-day statistical test (otherwise it could be chance) and at least 14 days are needed.

Winning this month does not mean winning every month: every model has its good and bad days. More detail in Accuracy and, for your exact spot, in «Which model is right here?» in the dashboard.