Why it went wrong

When the weather forecast gets it badly wrong somewhere, we explain it in plain words and with the data: which model saw it, whether it was a matter of timing or place, and when we do not know why.

The last 30 days

On Monday 9 November in Llanes, the models forecast gusts of 31 km/h and gusts of 78 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 9 November in Fraga, the models forecast gusts of 27 km/h and gusts of 71 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 9 November in El Barco de Ávila, the models forecast 25.2 mm and only 0.6 mm fell · Forecast rain that did not fall
On Monday 9 November in Santa María de Cayón, the models forecast gusts of 70 km/h and gusts of 107 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 9 November in Olmedo, the models forecast gusts of 47 km/h and gusts of 80 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Sunday 8 November in Vallehermoso, the models forecast gusts of 51 km/h and gusts of 117 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Sunday 8 November in Segovia, the models forecast gusts of 30 km/h and gusts of 67 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Sunday 8 November in Agaete, the models forecast gusts of 68 km/h and gusts of 102 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Sunday 8 November in Santa María de Cayón, the models forecast gusts of 53 km/h and gusts of 90 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Sunday 8 November in Muñotello, the models forecast gusts of 43 km/h and gusts of 73 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Saturday 7 November in Villarino de los Aires, a high of 16.7 °C was expected and it only got to 12.3 °C · Colder than forecast
On Saturday 7 November in Vallehermoso, the models forecast gusts of 30 km/h and gusts of 76 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Saturday 7 November in A Estrada, the models forecast 1.3 mm and 18.4 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Saturday 7 November in Monterroso, the models forecast 1.7 mm and 18.6 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Saturday 7 November in Vallehermoso, a high of 24.2 °C was expected and it reached 28.3 °C · Hotter than forecast
On Friday 6 November in Móra la Nova, a high of 17 °C was expected and it only got to 12.5 °C · Colder than forecast
On Friday 6 November in Elgoibar, the models forecast 0 mm and 24.7 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Thursday 5 November in Adra, the models forecast 0 mm and 18.2 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Thursday 5 November in Llucmajor, the models forecast 1.1 mm and 15.4 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Wednesday 4 November in Formentera, the models forecast 0.4 mm and 28.4 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Wednesday 4 November in Teruel, a high of 11.2 °C was expected and it only got to 6.4 °C · Colder than forecast
On Tuesday 3 November in Agaete, the models forecast 0.5 mm and 30.6 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Tuesday 3 November in Jávea, the models forecast 2.8 mm and 31.4 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Tuesday 3 November in Agaete, the models forecast gusts of 32 km/h and gusts of 67 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 2 November in Tarragona, the models forecast 2.1 mm and 30.7 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Monday 2 November in El Prat de Llobregat, the models forecast 2.3 mm and 17.6 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Sunday 1 November in Agaete, the models forecast gusts of 40 km/h and gusts of 73 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Sunday 1 November in Vallehermoso, the models forecast gusts of 39 km/h and gusts of 83 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Saturday 31 October in Carboneras, the models forecast gusts of 27 km/h and gusts of 70 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Saturday 31 October in Carboneras, the models forecast 1 mm and 16.2 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Saturday 31 October in Son Servera, the models forecast 2.1 mm and 15.8 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Wednesday 28 October in Trujillo, the models forecast 0 mm and 22.7 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Tuesday 27 October in Tegueste, a high of 21.1 °C was expected and it reached 28.3 °C · Hotter than forecast
On Monday 26 October in Vallehermoso, the models forecast gusts of 26 km/h and gusts of 77 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 26 October in Zumaia, the models forecast gusts of 28 km/h and gusts of 64 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 26 October in Puerto del Rosario, a high of 30 °C was expected and it only got to 24.6 °C · Colder than forecast
On Monday 26 October in Santa María de Cayón, the models forecast gusts of 46 km/h and gusts of 75 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 26 October in Haría, a high of 27.6 °C was expected and it reached 32.7 °C · Hotter than forecast
On Sunday 25 October in Boiro, the models forecast 2 mm and 27 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Sunday 25 October in Tegueste, a high of 19.9 °C was expected and it reached 25.5 °C · Hotter than forecast
On Saturday 24 October in Vega de San Mateo, a high of 15.9 °C was expected and it reached 20.5 °C · Hotter than forecast
On Friday 23 October in Vilassar de Dalt, the models forecast 1 mm and 25.4 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Friday 23 October in Tegueste, a high of 20.2 °C was expected and it reached 24.5 °C · Hotter than forecast
On Friday 23 October in La Jonquera, the models forecast gusts of 29 km/h and gusts of 71 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Thursday 22 October in San Andrés y Sauces, the models forecast gusts of 24 km/h and gusts of 62 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Thursday 22 October in Soto del Barco, the models forecast gusts of 60 km/h and gusts of 98 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Thursday 22 October in Santa María de Cayón, the models forecast gusts of 45 km/h and gusts of 79 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 19 October in Andújar, the models forecast gusts of 28 km/h and gusts of 75 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 19 October in Sóller, the models forecast gusts of 50 km/h and gusts of 86 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 19 October in Vallehermoso, the models forecast 1.2 mm and 22.4 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Monday 19 October in Cabrera - Parque Nacional de Cabrera, the models forecast gusts of 46 km/h and gusts of 74 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Monday 19 October in Andújar, the models forecast 2.3 mm and 15.2 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Sunday 18 October in Tegueste, the models forecast 2.5 mm and 31 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Sunday 18 October in Cabrera - Parque Nacional de Cabrera, the models forecast gusts of 52 km/h and gusts of 92 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Sunday 18 October in Águilas, the models forecast 15.3 mm and only 0.8 mm fell · Forecast rain that did not fall
On Saturday 17 October in El Prat de Llobregat, the models forecast gusts of 27 km/h and gusts of 80 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Saturday 17 October in Cedrillas - Antenas, the models forecast 1.5 mm and 25.8 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Saturday 17 October in Piedrabuena, the models forecast 1.5 mm and 24.4 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Saturday 17 October in Vallehermoso, the models forecast gusts of 31 km/h and gusts of 80 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Saturday 17 October in Frontera, the models forecast gusts of 51 km/h and gusts of 81 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Friday 16 October in San José del Valle, the models forecast 0 mm and 50.8 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Friday 16 October in Benavente, a high of 24.4 °C was expected and it only got to 19.3 °C · Colder than forecast
On Friday 16 October in Tegueste, a high of 22.8 °C was expected and it reached 27.8 °C · Hotter than forecast
On Friday 16 October in San José del Valle, the models forecast gusts of 21 km/h and gusts of 61 km/h were measured · Gusts stronger than forecast
On Friday 16 October in Tarancón, the models forecast 0 mm and 16.8 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Thursday 15 October in Tegueste, a high of 22 °C was expected and it reached 26.2 °C · Hotter than forecast
On Thursday 15 October in Segovia, the models forecast 0.2 mm and 21.6 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Thursday 15 October in Boiro, a high of 22.5 °C was expected and it only got to 17.2 °C · Colder than forecast
On Thursday 15 October in Guijuelo, the models forecast 0.1 mm and 15 mm fell · Rain that was not forecast
On Wednesday 14 October in Tegueste, a high of 20.5 °C was expected and it reached 24.6 °C · Hotter than forecast
On Wednesday 14 October in Llanes, a high of 25.3 °C was expected and it reached 30.4 °C · Hotter than forecast
On Tuesday 13 October in Tijarafe, a high of 9.1 °C was expected and it reached 19.5 °C · Hotter than forecast

How we spot them

Every day we compare what the Meteocat (in Catalonia) and AEMET weather stations measured the day before with what each model had forecast for that same day (0–24 h ahead). It counts as a notable miss if 15 mm or more fell and the median of the models gave less than 3; if it gave 15 mm or more and less than 1 fell; if the high was off by 4 °C or more (and by at least 4 °C more than that station usually is); or if a gust went over 60 km/h and was 25 km/h or more above the forecast. Stations within 40 km with the same miss count as one episode, and we show at most 5 per day.

The explanations come from the same data: which model saw it, whether the rain came earlier or later, whether it fell (or was forecast) a few kilometres away, whether it was very concentrated… When none of that fits, we say so. Days run from midnight to midnight UTC (2 am to 2 am in summer and 1 am to 1 am in winter, Spanish mainland time).

Missing now and then is unavoidable: the weather is chaotic and every model has its days. How often each one gets it right, on average, is in Accuracy and in the model league.