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Which model is most accurate in Cádiz?

In Cádiz, the model median is the most accurate this month: its average error on tomorrow's temperature is 1.2 °C, and its lead over the second is not down to chance.

Last 30 days (11 October to 9 November) · 7 stations from AEMET

Temperature

For today (0–24 h)

In Cádiz, ICON and the model median do about equally well on today's temperature (the first has an average error of 1.2 °C): the difference between them could be chance.

  1. 1ICON1.2 °C
  2. 2Model median1.2 °C
  3. 3ARPEGE (Météo-France)1.4 °C
  4. 4ECMWF AIFS (AI)1.4 °C
  5. 5Google AI (WeatherNext 2) (estimated)1.4 °C
  6. 6ECMWF IFS1.4 °C
  7. 7GFS1.5 °C
  8. 8UKMO (Met Office)1.8 °C

7 stations · 30 days

For tomorrow (24–48 h)

In Cádiz, the model median is the most accurate this month: its average error on tomorrow's temperature is 1.2 °C, and its lead over the second is not down to chance.

  1. 1Model median1.2 °C
  2. 2ICON1.3 °C
  3. 3ECMWF AIFS (AI)1.3 °C
  4. 4Google AI (WeatherNext 2) (estimated)1.4 °C
  5. 5ARPEGE (Météo-France)1.4 °C
  6. 6ECMWF IFS1.5 °C
  7. 7GFS1.6 °C
  8. 8UKMO (Met Office)1.7 °C

7 stations · 30 days

Average error in the temperature for each hour, at the stations in the area. The shorter the bar, the better. Highlighted: the leaders, where the difference between them cannot be put down to chance.

Wind

For today (0–24 h)

In Cádiz, the model median and GFS do about equally well on today's wind (the first has an average error of 4.0 km/h): the difference between them could be chance.

  1. 1Model median4.0 km/h
  2. 2GFS4.2 km/h
  3. 3ICON4.3 km/h
  4. 4ECMWF AIFS (AI)4.4 km/h
  5. 5ECMWF IFS4.5 km/h
  6. 6UKMO (Met Office)4.9 km/h

7 stations · 30 days

For tomorrow (24–48 h)

In Cádiz, the model median and GFS do about equally well on tomorrow's wind (the first has an average error of 4.0 km/h): the difference between them could be chance.

  1. 1Model median4.0 km/h
  2. 2GFS4.2 km/h
  3. 3ICON4.3 km/h
  4. 4ECMWF IFS4.5 km/h
  5. 5ECMWF AIFS (AI)4.6 km/h
  6. 6UKMO (Met Office)4.8 km/h

7 stations · 30 days

Rain

For today (0–24 h)

In Cádiz, no model stands out this month on today's rain: the differences could be chance. The one with the smallest error, the Met Office's UKMO, is off by 1.7 l/m² per day on average.

  1. 1UKMO (Met Office)1.7 l/m² per day
  2. 2ICON1.7 l/m² per day
  3. 3Model median1.7 l/m² per day
  4. 4ECMWF AIFS (AI)1.9 l/m² per day
  5. 5GFS1.9 l/m² per day
  6. 6ARPEGE (Météo-France)1.9 l/m² per day
  7. 7ECMWF IFS2.1 l/m² per day

7 stations · 30 days

For tomorrow (24–48 h)

In Cádiz, no model stands out this month on tomorrow's rain: the differences could be chance. The one with the smallest error, GFS, is off by 1.8 l/m² per day on average.

  1. 1GFS1.8 l/m² per day
  2. 2ICON1.8 l/m² per day
  3. 3UKMO (Met Office)1.9 l/m² per day
  4. 4Model median1.9 l/m² per day
  5. 5ARPEGE (Météo-France)2.0 l/m² per day
  6. 6ECMWF AIFS (AI)2.1 l/m² per day
  7. 7ECMWF IFS2.3 l/m² per day

7 stations · 30 days

Error in the total rain for each day, in litres per square metre.

Google's AI (WeatherNext 2) is now in the league. As we only compare it every 6 hours (that is how often it runs) and measure it at one station per province, its error is an estimate: the model median's error plus how much more or less Google's AI misses than the median at those hours.

See Jerez de la Frontera in the dashboard

Weather in Cádiz

All towns in Cádiz · The league in the other provinces

How it is calculated

We compare what each model had forecast for the same day (0–24 h) and for the next day (24–48 h) with what the Meteocat (in Catalonia) and AEMET weather stations measured over the last 30 days. They all compete over the same hours. Being first is not enough to win: the difference has to pass a day-by-day statistical test (otherwise it could be chance) and at least 14 days are needed.

Winning this month does not mean winning every month: every model has its good and bad days. More detail in Accuracy and, for your exact spot, in «Which model is right here?» in the dashboard.